Public Sector Reports Most Negative Hiring Plans

DON’T BANK ON IT! PUBLIC SECTOR JOBS OUTLOOK IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC SINCE THE EARLY NINETIES.  FINANCE, BANKING & BUSINESS SERVICES SECTOR LOOKS TO PICK UP THE SLACK.

MANPOWER EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY REVEALS WIDENING DISPARITY BETWEEN PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS 

- Finance, Banking & Business Services is the most positive industry sector
- Public sector reports most negative hiring intentions since the early 90’s
- UK’s Net Employment Outlook remains at +2% for the second consecutive quarter

LONDON, 8th MARCH 2011:   After more than 2 years of horrendous cuts in banking jobs, Finance, Banking and Business Services has emerged as the sector of the UK economy with the most positive hiring intentions, according to Manpower, world leader in innovative workforce solutions. Overall, UK employers are predicting a slight increase in recruitment for the second quarter of 2011, despite a considerable fall in the hiring intentions of the public sector.

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today and based on responses from over 2,100 UK employers, reports a national Seasonally Adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +2%1. However, encouraging signs from some employers within the private sector are offset by the gloomy outlook of the public sector, which reports a hiring intention of -22%.  This is the worst figure since the early 1990s when the UK was mired in recession.

“We’ve heard a lot over the last few years about how the economy needs rebalancing,” says Mark Cahill, Managing Director at Manpower UK. “However it seems that the sector that has been accused of getting us into the mess in the first place – Finance, Banking and Business Services - is the very sector that is leading the way into recovery. Some of our clients - including a number of the big high street banks – are asking Manpower to fill twice the number of positions that they were last year. These new jobs are not the high rolling stereotypical bankers. They are overwhelmingly back office and support positions - which are the engine room of any large organisation.  With the latest government statistics showing youth unemployment running at a shocking one in five, those in the 16-25 age bracket should note that there are real opportunities within Finance, Banking and Business Services.”

The Finance, Banking & Business Services sector, which dominated the UK’s decline into recession, now leads the way post-recession with upbeat intentions of +16%, and continues to be the most positive of any sector. This is the sector’s strongest quarterly hiring intention since Q4 2007. The Manufacturing industry sector reports low but positive hiring intentions for the fifth successive quarter whilst employers in the Utilities, Mining and Transport industry sectors also report modest but positive intentions.  A neutral outlook for the Construction industry sector marks the first time in 11 quarters (since the end of 2008) that the sector is not projecting a decrease in hiring intentions.

Cahill continues: “Looking at the big picture, whilst the private sector is beginning to see some opportunity for growth after a stagnant 2010, we have a public sector that is now responsible for delivering the savings and cuts in public expenditure, the impact of which hasn’t yet been felt. There is no doubt that the outlook in the public sector has not been this stark for almost twenty years but despite that there are grounds for some cautious optimism. Interestingly Manpower is seeing that where local authorities have begun to offer voluntary redundancy packages, early indications show a heavily oversubscribed interest in such schemes (in some cases by a factor of two to one). We believe this demonstrates that there is actually some confidence among public sector workers that they might be able to find opportunities elsewhere. The challenge for government, firms, employees and Manpower is to focus on working together to combat the mismatch between skills and jobs across the country.”

The Outlook of +2% marks the seventh successive quarter of relative balance between organisations reporting increased and decreased hiring intentions. In the next quarter, 80% of businesses do not plan to alter overall employment levels. Whilst 10% report plans to increase and 8% plans to decrease, the overall picture is of balanced churn.

Statistically, employers in the East, South East and South West report the most positive outlooks, with hiring intentions of +12%, +9% and +8%, respectively, with employers in Wales also reporting positive hiring intentions of +3% . Meanwhile, Scotland, West Midlands and Northern Ireland employers continue to report negative hiring intentions at -9%, -6% and -4%, respectively. London is set to see the most churn of any region, with 3 in 10 businesses expecting to change overall staffing levels, with an almost equal split between those projecting an increase and decrease, meaning the Outlook for London remains +1% for a second successive quarter.

Use the 'Download' option opposite to access the Survey results in full.

For further information about the Q2 2011 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, and to view an interactive map of the results for each geographical region and industry sector, please visit: manpower.co.uk/meos

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